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Research


Causal inference:

Vivalt, E. (forthcoming). “How Much Can We Generalize from Impact Evaluations?”, Journal of the European Economics Association. Online Appendices

Vivalt, E. (2019). “Specification Searching and Significance Inflation Across Time, Methods and Disciplines”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81(4): 797–816.

Vivalt, E. (2015). “Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Impact Evaluation”, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 105(5): 467–470.

AidGrade’s site


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Basic income / cash transfer programs:

OpenResearch’s Basic Income RCT with Alex Bartik, David Broockman, Sarah Miller, and Elizabeth Rhodes (formerly Y Combinator Research)

This is a large project in the U.S. that will test the impact of receiving $1,000/month, unconditionally, for 3 years. Researchers may contact me privately for pre-analysis plans on any of the following 12 topics (some of which may merge but which are currently envisaged as separate papers):

  • Employment, work quality, and job search
  • Time use
  • Income, expenditures, and financial health
  • Mental and physical health outcomes
  • Cognitive outcomes
  • Material wellbeing
  • Subjective, psychological, and social wellbeing
  • Political and social attitudes
  • Children’s outcomes
  • Intrahousehold outcomes and intimate partner violence
  • Migration and housing outcomes
  • Crime

We are also working on a COVID-19-related paper.

The Unclaimed Property Puzzle: Billion Dollar Bills Lying on the Sidewalk (sole PI)


Forecasting and development economics:

DellaVigna, S., Pope, D. and Vivalt, E. (2019). “Predict Science to Improve Science”, Science, 366(6464): 428-429.

DellaVigna, S., Otis, N. and Vivalt, E. (2020). “Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy”, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110(5): 75-79.

Social Science Prediction Platform website

The above papers are part of a larger project generously supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and an anonymous foundation.

Vivalt, E. and Coville, A. (2020). “How Do Policy-Makers Update Their Beliefs?” (under review) 
Online appendix: Forecasting survey on the Social Science Prediction Platform (with .qsf file)
(contains content from Coville, A. and Vivalt, E. “Weighing Results: Which Attributes Matter?”)

Vivalt, E. and Coville, A. (2020). “Policy-Makers Consistently Overestimate Program Impacts” (in preparation)

Vivalt, E. and Coville, A. (2019). “The Implications of Variance Neglect for the Formation and Estimation of Subjective Expectations” (in preparation)

Vivalt, E. (2020). “Using Priors in Experimental Design: How Much Are We Leaving on the Table?” in Bédécarrats F., I. Guérin, and F. Roubaud, eds., Randomized Control Trials in the Field of Development: The Gold Standard Revisited. London: Oxford University Press.


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Other papers:

Chow, V. and Vivalt, E. (2019). “Challenges in Changing Social Norms: Evidence from Interventions Targeting Child Marriage in Ethiopia” (revising for the Journal of African Economies)

Coville, A. and Vivalt, E. (2019). “Using Subjective Expectations to Assess Research Credibility” (formerly “How Often Should We Believe Positive Results? Assessing the Credibility of Research Findings in Development Economics”)

Huet-Vaughn, E., Pham, M., Tasoff, J. and Vivalt, E. “The Price of Moral Values: Motivated Beliefs, Selective Search, and Food Consumption” (in progress)

Vivalt, E. and Macdonald, B. (2017). “The Impact of New Products on Ethical Beliefs”

Macdonald, B. and Vivalt, E. (2017). “Effective Strategies for Overcoming the Naturalistic Heuristic: Experimental Evidence on Consumer Acceptance of ‘Clean’ Meat”
Description of treatment arms