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Research


Causal inference:

Vivalt, E. (2020). “How Much Can We Generalize from Impact Evaluations?”, Journal of the European Economics Association, 18(6): 3045–3089. Online Appendices

Vivalt, E. (2019). “Specification Searching and Significance Inflation Across Time, Methods and Disciplines”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81(4): 797–816.

Vivalt, E. (2015). “Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Impact Evaluation”, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 105(5): 467–470.

AidGrade’s site


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Basic income / cash transfer programs:

OpenResearch’s Basic Income RCT with Alex Bartik, David Broockman, Sarah Miller, and Elizabeth Rhodes (formerly Y Combinator Research)

This is a large project in the U.S. that will test the impact of receiving $1,000/month, unconditionally, for 3 years. Researchers may contact me privately for pre-analysis plans on any of the following 12 topics (some of which may merge but which are currently envisaged as separate papers):

  • Employment, work quality, and job search
  • Time use
  • Income, expenditures, and financial health
  • Mental and physical health outcomes
  • Cognitive outcomes
  • Material wellbeing
  • Subjective, psychological, and social wellbeing
  • Political and social attitudes
  • Children’s outcomes
  • Intrahousehold outcomes and intimate partner violence
  • Migration and housing outcomes
  • Crime

We are also working on a COVID-19-related paper.

The Unclaimed Property Puzzle: Billion Dollar Bills Lying on the Sidewalk (sole PI)


Forecasting and development economics:

DellaVigna, S., Pope, D. and Vivalt, E. (2019). “Predict Science to Improve Science”, Science, 366(6464): 428-429.

DellaVigna, S., Otis, N. and Vivalt, E. (2020). “Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy”, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110(5): 75-79.

Social Science Prediction Platform website

The above papers are part of a larger project generously supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and an anonymous foundation.

Vivalt, E. and Coville, A. (2020). “How Do Policy-Makers Update Their Beliefs?”  
Online appendix: Forecasting survey on the Social Science Prediction Platform (with .qsf file)

Vivalt, E., Coville, A. and KC, S. (2021). “Weighing the Evidence: Which Studies Count?”

Vivalt, E. and Coville, A. (2020). “Policy-Makers Consistently Overestimate Program Impacts”

Vivalt, E. (2020). “Using Priors in Experimental Design: How Much Are We Leaving on the Table?” in Bédécarrats F., I. Guérin, and F. Roubaud, eds., Randomized Control Trials in the Field of Development: The Gold Standard Revisited (pp. 293-303). London: Oxford University Press.

Chow, V. and Vivalt, E. (forthcoming). “Challenges in Changing Social Norms: Evidence from Interventions Targeting Child Marriage in Ethiopia.” Journal of African Economies.


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Other papers