The survey was conducted October 2025 - February 2026. Baseline values provided in the survey have already been updated in public data in some cases. But, they will continue to update over time as more data become available.
I asked an AI agent to generate some plots that can be easily updated as these data come out. Here is what it said (disclaimer: lightly vetted, some mistakes may remain):
| Indicator | Latest Date | Latest | Forecast (p50) | Gap | Status |
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| ▶ Real GDP Growth (5yr CAGR) | 2026-01-01 | 2.01% | 2.50% | -0.49 pp | On track |
| Data source: GDPC1 from FRED What this measures: Annualized real GDP growth rate over 5-year window, computed as (GDPC1_end / GDPC1_start)^(1/5) - 1 per Appendix H.4.1 How it's computed: Annualized growth rate (CAGR) computed from the ratio of endpoint levels: (end/start)^(1/years) - 1 Comparison window: Beginning 2025 to beginning 2030; implemented with Q4 2024 to Q4 2029 quarterly index endpoints Data History: Realized CAGR to date
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ Labor Force Participation Rate | 2026-06-01 | 61.5% | 61.0% | -0.50 | 69% progress |
| Data source: CIVPART from FRED What this measures: Labor force participation rate at beginning of 2030 How it's computed: Reported value used directly, no transformation needed Comparison window: Level as of January 2025, tracked over time until 2030 Notes: Paper cites 62.6% baseline for Jan 2025. Data History: Latest value
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ Unemployment Rate | 2026-06-01 | 4.2% | 5.0% | +0.80 | 20% progress |
| Data source: UNRATE from FRED What this measures: Unemployment rate at beginning of 2030 How it's computed: Reported value used directly, no transformation needed Comparison window: Level as of January 2025, tracked over time until 2030 Notes: Paper cites 4.0% baseline for 2025. Data History: Latest value
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ Youth Unemployment (20-24) | 2026-06-01 | 7.1% | 9.5% | +2.40 | Moving away |
| Data source: LNS14000036 from FRED What this measures: Unemployment rate for ages 20-24 at beginning of 2030 How it's computed: Reported value used directly, no transformation needed Comparison window: Level as of January 2025, tracked over time until 2030 Notes: FRED series LNS14000036 = ages 20-24. Paper cites 7.9% baseline for 2025. Data History: Latest value
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ Median Household Income | 2024-01-01 | $81,624 | $84,000 | +2,376 | 30% progress |
| Data source: MEHOINUSA672N from FRED What this measures: Real median household income in 2023 dollars at beginning of 2030. Uses FRED/Census real median household income, rebased so 2023 equals the paper's cited $80,610 baseline. How it's computed: Real dollar series rebased so the 2023 value matches the paper's reported 2023 baseline Comparison window: Annual 2029 release (represents beginning of 2030) Notes: MEHOINUSA672N is the FRED/Census real-income concept. FRED currently publishes it in 2024 C-CPI-U dollars, so the tracker rebases to the paper's 2023-dollar baseline. Data History: Latest value
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ TFP Growth (5yr CAGR) | 2025-01-01 | 0.83% | 1.20% | -0.37 pp | On track |
| Data source: MFPNFBS from FRED What this measures: Annualized TFP growth, beginning 2025 to beginning 2030, CAGR endpoint from nonfarm business MFP index (MFPNFBS) How it's computed: Annualized growth rate (CAGR) computed from the ratio of endpoint levels: (end/start)^(1/years) - 1 Comparison window: Beginning 2025 to beginning 2030; implemented with annual 2024 to annual 2029 values Notes: Annual series; latest available may lag. Tables 22-23, Figure 8. Data History: Realized CAGR to date
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ Labor Productivity Growth (5yr CAGR) | 2026-01-01 | 2.05% | 2.00% | +0.05 pp | On track |
| Data source: OPHNFB from FRED What this measures: Annualized labor productivity growth, beginning 2025 to beginning 2030, CAGR endpoint from nonfarm business output per hour (OPHNFB) How it's computed: Annualized growth rate (CAGR) computed from the ratio of endpoint levels: (end/start)^(1/years) - 1 Comparison window: Beginning 2025 to beginning 2030; implemented with Q4 2024 to Q4 2029 quarterly index endpoints Notes: Quarterly index. Tables 20-21. Data History: Realized CAGR to date
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ Labor Share of Income | 2026-01-01 | 56.4% | 54.3% | -2.13 | 45% progress |
| Data source: PRS85006173 from FRED What this measures: Labor share of national income at beginning of 2030. BLS nonfarm business labor share index (PRS85006173), rescaled to % using 2012 OECD anchor (59.08%). How it's computed: BLS labor share index (2012=100) rescaled to percentage using OECD 2012 anchor value of 59.08% Comparison window: Level as of January 2025, tracked over time until 2030 Notes: BLS index 2012=100; rescaled via OECD 2012 labor share = 59.08%. Tables 38-39. Data History: Latest value
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ White-Collar Sector Share | 2026-06-01 | 20.3% | 21.0% | +0.70 | 9% progress |
| Data source: USINFO from FRED What this measures: White-collar supersector employment as share of labor force: (Information + Financial + Professional/Business) ÷ Civilian Labor Force × 100 How it's computed: Sum of component CES supersector employment series divided by civilian labor force level, expressed as a percentage Comparison window: Level as of January 2025, tracked over time until 2030 Notes: Section 4.2, Figure 11. CES supersector employment from FRED. Data History: Latest value
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ Blue-Collar Sector Share | 2026-06-01 | 12.7% | 12.5% | -0.22 | Moving away |
| Data source: USGOOD from FRED What this measures: Blue-collar supersector employment as share of labor force: Goods-producing (USGOOD) ÷ Civilian Labor Force × 100 How it's computed: Sum of component CES supersector employment series divided by civilian labor force level, expressed as a percentage Comparison window: Level as of January 2025, tracked over time until 2030 Notes: Section 4.2, Figure 11. Goods-producing = Mining + Construction + Manufacturing. Data History: Latest value
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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| ▶ Service Sector Share | 2026-06-01 | 47.1% | 48.0% | +0.94 | 52% progress |
| Data source: USTPU from FRED What this measures: Service supersector employment as share of labor force: (Trade/Transport/Utilities + Education/Health + Leisure/Hospitality + Other Services) ÷ Civilian Labor Force × 100 How it's computed: Sum of component CES supersector employment series divided by civilian labor force level, expressed as a percentage Comparison window: Level as of January 2025, tracked over time until 2030 Notes: Section 4.2, Figure 11. Private service-producing excl. white-collar supersectors. Data History: Latest value
Points are source observation dates; hover dots for exact values.
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