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P.S. to Reinhardt-Rogoff post

A couple of people asked: why am I calling for a pre-analysis registry for non-RCTs? Can’t people look at the data for non-experimental studies and then “game” the pre-analysis plans, essentially writing them after the analysis?

Not necessarily. There can still be substantial lag time before you get the data for non-experimental studies, as well. I’d say I’m averaging more than a year to get non-experimental data… even including the times when the data exist out there and I just have to repeatedly ask for them! Mostly, though, I’m thinking about the large number of development economics studies which use quasi-experimental methods but otherwise face the exact same lags as RCTs do. There’s got to be something for them.


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